Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revision Previous revision
Next revision
Previous revision
effects_of_abortion_on_the_u.s._population [2015/12/04 14:12]
marri
effects_of_abortion_on_the_u.s._population [2017/05/22 11:42] (current)
marri
Line 6: Line 6:
 Roughly 53 million abortions were reported between 1973 and 2011.((Rachel K. Jones and Jenna Jerman, “Abortion Incidence and Service Availability in the United States, 2011,” //​Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health// 46, no. 1 (2014): 3-14 as cited in “Induced Abortion in the United States,” The Guttmacher Institute, July 2014, available at [[http://​www.guttmacher.org/​pubs/​fb_induced_abortion.html]].)) The Guttmacher Institute estimates that there were 1.1 million abortions in 2011 (the lowest yearly rate of abortions in the U.S. since 1973).((“Induced Abortion in the United States,” The Guttmacher Institute, July 2014, available at [[http://​www.guttmacher.org/​pubs/​fb_induced_abortion.html]].)) Roughly 53 million abortions were reported between 1973 and 2011.((Rachel K. Jones and Jenna Jerman, “Abortion Incidence and Service Availability in the United States, 2011,” //​Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health// 46, no. 1 (2014): 3-14 as cited in “Induced Abortion in the United States,” The Guttmacher Institute, July 2014, available at [[http://​www.guttmacher.org/​pubs/​fb_induced_abortion.html]].)) The Guttmacher Institute estimates that there were 1.1 million abortions in 2011 (the lowest yearly rate of abortions in the U.S. since 1973).((“Induced Abortion in the United States,” The Guttmacher Institute, July 2014, available at [[http://​www.guttmacher.org/​pubs/​fb_induced_abortion.html]].))
  
-{{ :​us_abortion_rate_1973-2011.png?​direct&​600 |U.S. Abortion ​Rate1973-2011}}+Legalizing abortion massively changes sexual behaviors outside of marriage. The consequent sexual revolution increases conception out-of-wedlock and increases the rate of venereal diseasesIn a country of a few million births per a year, these increases themselves approach the millionsThe additional disease transmission vector comes with a cost around $300 million annually, paid collectively by individuals and through taxes.((Jonathan Klick and Thomas Stratmann, “The Effect of Abortion ​Legalization on Sexual Behavior: Evidence from Sexually Transmitted Diseases,” //Journal of Legal Studies// 32 (2003): 407-433. If legalizing abortion can be presumed to have a similar (causal) effect on the transmission of other sexually transmitted diseases, legalizing abortion creates treatment needs costing something around $4 billion annually. ))  ​
  
-Legalizing abortion massively changes sexual behaviors outside of marriage. The consequent sexual revolution increases conception out-of-wedlock and causes venereal diseasesIn a country of a few million births per a year, these increases themselves approach the millionsThe additional disease transmission vector comes with a cost around $300 million annually, paid collectively by individuals and through taxes.((Jonathan Klick and Thomas Stratmann, “The Effect of Abortion ​Legalization on Sexual Behavior: Evidence from Sexually Transmitted Diseases,” //Journal of Legal Studies// 32 (2003): 407-433. If legalizing abortion can be presumed to have a similar (causal) effect on the transmission of other sexually transmitted diseases, legalizing abortion creates treatment needs costing something around $4 billion annually. ))  ​+{{ :​us_abortion_rate_1973-2011.png?​direct&​600 |U.S. Abortion ​Rate1973-2011}}
  
 =====1. Legalizing Abortion Changes Sexual Behavior===== =====1. Legalizing Abortion Changes Sexual Behavior=====
Line 17: Line 17:
 According to the Center for Disease Control, 15 percent of children aborted were children of married mothers((U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Abortion Surveillance—United States, 2009, by Kim D. Burley et al. Surveillance Summaries, 61, no. 8. Table 17, “Reported abortions, by known marital status and reporting area of occurrence—selected states, United States, 2009” Available at [[http://​www.cdc.gov/​mmwr/​pdf/​ss/​ss6108.pdf]] (accessed June 25, 2013).)) while the remaining 85 percent of children aborted are the children of unmarried mothers. Eighty-five percent of abortions are by unmarried mothers. These unwed mothers changed their sexual behavior. According to the Center for Disease Control, 15 percent of children aborted were children of married mothers((U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Abortion Surveillance—United States, 2009, by Kim D. Burley et al. Surveillance Summaries, 61, no. 8. Table 17, “Reported abortions, by known marital status and reporting area of occurrence—selected states, United States, 2009” Available at [[http://​www.cdc.gov/​mmwr/​pdf/​ss/​ss6108.pdf]] (accessed June 25, 2013).)) while the remaining 85 percent of children aborted are the children of unmarried mothers. Eighty-five percent of abortions are by unmarried mothers. These unwed mothers changed their sexual behavior.
  
-//At most//, all 15 percent of abortions by married mothers are conceptions that would not have occurred had abortion not been legalized. Similarly, the abortion rate before legalization was roughly 10 percent of what it became after legalization.((The number of illegal abortions may be estimated by a method pioneered in Philip Levine, //Sex and Consequences:​ Abortion, Public Policy, and the Economics of Fertility// (Princeton University Press, 2007) and used in Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat, Jonathan Gruber, Phillip B. Levine, and Douglas Staiger, “Abortion and Selection,​” //The Review of Economics and Statistics//​ 91, no. 1 (2009): 124-136. The calculation is available upon request. It compares retrospective questions in NSFG Cycle 3 (a 1982 survey containing questions concerning 1965 through 1968) and NSFG Cycle 5 (a 1995 survey containing questions concerning 1978 through 1981).)) Sixty-six percent of abortions are conceptions that would not have occurred but for changed sexual behavior.((See Henry Potrykus and Anna Higgins, “Abortion:​ Decrease of the U.S. Population & Effects on Society,” The Marriage and Religion Research Institute (January 2014), available at [[http://downloads.frc.org/EF/EF14A55.pdf]].)) This means //at least// 40 percent((66 percent – 15 percent – 10 percent ≈ 40 percent)) of abortions are conceptions by unmarried women that occur as a result of sexual activity that would not have occurred without abortion legalization.+//At most//, all 15 percent of abortions by married mothers are conceptions that would not have occurred had abortion not been legalized. Similarly, the abortion rate before legalization was roughly 10 percent of what it became after legalization.((The number of illegal abortions may be estimated by a method pioneered in Philip Levine, //Sex and Consequences:​ Abortion, Public Policy, and the Economics of Fertility// (Princeton University Press, 2007) and used in Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat, Jonathan Gruber, Phillip B. Levine, and Douglas Staiger, “Abortion and Selection,​” //The Review of Economics and Statistics//​ 91, no. 1 (2009): 124-136. The calculation is available upon request. It compares retrospective questions in NSFG Cycle 3 (a 1982 survey containing questions concerning 1965 through 1968) and NSFG Cycle 5 (a 1995 survey containing questions concerning 1978 through 1981).)) Sixty-six percent of abortions are conceptions that would not have occurred but for changed sexual behavior.((See Henry Potrykus and Anna Higgins, “Abortion:​ Decrease of the U.S. Population & Effects on Society,” The Marriage and Religion Research Institute (January 2014), available at [[http://marri.us/research/​research-papers/​abortion-us-population/]].)) This means //at least// 40 percent((66 percent – 15 percent – 10 percent ≈ 40 percent)) of abortions are conceptions by unmarried women that occur as a result of sexual activity that would not have occurred without abortion legalization.
  
 Legalizing abortion increases sexual behavior outside of wedlock. Around 600,000 children—40 percent of 1.5 million abortions, and around 15 percent of the //total// number of births (4 million)—are now destroyed annually on account of being conceived out of wedlock because abortion was legalized. This is a massive social and ecological effect abortion has on sexual behavior. Legalizing abortion creates a massive amount of new out-of-wedlock conceptions that will then be destroyed. ​ Legalizing abortion increases sexual behavior outside of wedlock. Around 600,000 children—40 percent of 1.5 million abortions, and around 15 percent of the //total// number of births (4 million)—are now destroyed annually on account of being conceived out of wedlock because abortion was legalized. This is a massive social and ecological effect abortion has on sexual behavior. Legalizing abortion creates a massive amount of new out-of-wedlock conceptions that will then be destroyed. ​
Line 30: Line 30:
  
 From the 1970s through the 2000s the number of live births averaged approximately four million per year. While over this period the U.S. population has increased, the fertility rate (birthrate) in the U.S. has decreased per (fertile) adult. An increase in the U.S. population has compensated for the per adult decrease in fertility. The “natural experiment” among the states shows that abortion causally reduces births by around 10 percent.((Philip Levine, //Sex and Consequences:​ Abortion, Public Policy, and the Economics of Fertility// (Princeton University Press, 2007). Figure 5.6 clearly and explicitly illustrates this impact of abortion legalization on birthrate. From the 1970s through the 2000s the number of live births averaged approximately four million per year. While over this period the U.S. population has increased, the fertility rate (birthrate) in the U.S. has decreased per (fertile) adult. An increase in the U.S. population has compensated for the per adult decrease in fertility. The “natural experiment” among the states shows that abortion causally reduces births by around 10 percent.((Philip Levine, //Sex and Consequences:​ Abortion, Public Policy, and the Economics of Fertility// (Princeton University Press, 2007). Figure 5.6 clearly and explicitly illustrates this impact of abortion legalization on birthrate.
-Albeit likely, this number is somewhat higher than another figure used in the literature (somewhat above 6 percent). See [[http://downloads.frc.org/EF/EF14A55.pdf| Abortion: Decrease of US Population and Effect on Society]] for an analysis as to how using the lower figure (6 percent) modifies the findings that follow. In fact, all the findings are robust to the uncertainty in this effect on birthrate: The numbers stated in this entry are conservative.)) Had abortion not been legalized, approximately a third of aborted children would be present today.(( (4 million births per year) x (10% decreased birthrate) = 400,000 births (that //would have been//) lost to abortion. So, 400,000 / 1.2 million annual abortions = 33 percent of aborted children would be present today.))+Albeit likely, this number is somewhat higher than another figure used in the literature (somewhat above 6 percent). See [[http://marri.us/research/​research-papers/​abortion-us-population/| Abortion: Decrease of US Population and Effect on Society]] for an analysis as to how using the lower figure (6 percent) modifies the findings that follow. In fact, all the findings are robust to the uncertainty in this effect on birthrate: The numbers stated in this entry are conservative.)) Had abortion not been legalized, approximately a third of aborted children would be present today.(( (4 million births per year) x (10% decreased birthrate) = 400,000 births (that //would have been//) lost to abortion. So, 400,000 / 1.2 million annual abortions = 33 percent of aborted children would be present today.))
  
 =====3. Economic Impact of Abortion===== =====3. Economic Impact of Abortion=====
  
-Eliminating a population through abortion destroys a population that will work and pay taxes. Legalizing abortion imposes a loss of between $70 billion and $135 billion of economic activity (valued work),​((Assuming an average income of $14,000 to $27,000 per aborted worker per year times 5 million lost persons who would be working now gives $70 billion to $135 billion per year lost in valued economic activity (work). The median U.S. income per worker is around $40,000 per year. $40,000 is 150 percent of $27,000. See [[http://downloads.frc.org/EF/EF14A55.pdf| Abortion: Decrease of US Population and Effect on Society]] for how this (much) lower value (median worker having income 50 percent higher than aborted worker) for the average aborted worker is obtained.)) and between $10 billion and $33 billion in annual tax revenue.+Eliminating a population through abortion destroys a population that will work and pay taxes. Legalizing abortion imposes a loss of between $70 billion and $135 billion of economic activity (valued work),​((Assuming an average income of $14,000 to $27,000 per aborted worker per year times 5 million lost persons who would be working now gives $70 billion to $135 billion per year lost in valued economic activity (work). The median U.S. income per worker is around $40,000 per year. $40,000 is 150 percent of $27,000. See [[http://marri.us/research/​research-papers/​abortion-us-population/| Abortion: Decrease of US Population and Effect on Society]] for how this (much) lower value (median worker having income 50 percent higher than aborted worker) for the average aborted worker is obtained
 +\\ 
 +\\ 
 +\\ 
 +This entry draws heavily from [[http://​marri.us/​research/​research-papers/​abortion-us-population/​|Abortion:​ Decrease of U.S. Population and Effects on Society]].)) and between $10 billion and $33 billion in annual tax revenue.